Showing posts with label Hybrid War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hybrid War. Show all posts

Thursday, July 27, 2017

DEMYSTIFYING THE CHINESE DRAGON

ANSWERS LIE IN CHINA'S HISTORY

  • TAKE FIVE PIECES OF LAND
  • GIVE BACK TWO
  • SWEAR PEACE
  • GAIN OF THREE PIECES OF LAND
  • GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF LAND TILL YOU OWN ALL THE LANDS
ZHANG YI - PREMIER OF QIN EMPEROR QIN SHI HUANG [秦始皇]

Combine these words with the words of SUN TZU [孫子],

  • WAR IS A FUNCTION OF THE STATE, IT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VICTORY & RUINATION. HENCE IT IS A SUBJECT OF INQUIRY WHICH CAN ON NO ACCOUNT BE NEGLECTED.
  • ALL WARFARE IS BASED ON DECEPTION.


 and you will start getting an inkling of the idea that guides Chinese foreign policy.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE


Most of Chinese history is filled with war and strife : The period of Spring & Autumn 春秋 (771 BCE - 476 BCE) and the Warring States Period 戰國時代 (475 BCE - 221 BCE) are particularly notable. Most occasions Chinese War Stratagems & Philosophies were formed during this period. This period is also marked by refinements in use of DECEPTION as a tool of diplomacy.

The Warring States Period ended with the establishment of the Qin (Chin) Empire of Qin Shi Huang. Qin Shi defeated all the six states and annexed them into what we now know as China.

Some of the greatest works to come out of China are all about war - preparing for it, waging it and negotiating the end of it. “Master of the Sun” Sun Tzu and his masterpiece ART OF WAR is possibly the most widely read military strategy work. In his work Sun Tzu makes war the central purpose for existence of a state. He declares that when the state is not waging war, it must prepare for war. Because war is inevitable…. It will come.

(I particularly like these words, for they hold in them, a very Confucian idea that's simple yet holds deep meaning)

Now much like India, China too was let down by its leaders and people. The Mongol, Japanese, British… All ruled China during different periods of its existence…. And it was all because the Chinese refused to stand united. When Genghis (चंगेज) Khan (pronounced as Han) attacked China, he had to first face the kingdom of Xia Xia, the ruler of Xia Xia asked the Chinese emperor for help…. He was turned down. Mongols overran Xia Xia in a matter of days and then moved on to lay siege on the Chinese Emperor.

These foreign rules and the resulting humiliations has forced today's China to revert back to its roots, to find its lost pride and its national “Chi” 吃. This national renaissance started with Mao's Long March. The Long March was militarily a retreat but it triggered an awakening of the people. Like so many events in China's history, this retreat was a blood soaked event...Only 1 out of 10 survived the march.

The return to its cultural and historical past was sadly to a past of incessant wars, land grab and deception. It is this past that forms the basis of today's China and its world view.

CHINA's MANDATE OF HEAVEN (天命)

According to this MANDATE of HEAVEN (pronounced as Tian) bestows upon the “Son of Heaven” to rule as a just ruler. This mandate embodies the natural order of things and will of the universe.

The kingdom of heaven (China) is supposed to reflect the natural order of things where the Son of Heaven enjoy primacy over all others since he holds the MANDATE of HEAVEN to rule this world. In order to enforce this mandate, it falls on the ruler to use every stratagem at his disposal. To do this China falls back on its centuries of war waging expertise, works of its master strategists like Lao Zhu, Sun Tzu Zhang Yi etc. To the Chinese mind waging war through armed conflict is not the Chinese way. They use diplomacy to wage war, their economy as a weapon and money as leverage.

Over decades China has melded its historical war mongering stratagems with modern day going political realities. Today they are truly one of the most accomplished practitioners of HYBRID WARS 

(read my blog on Hybrid Wars here https://onebharatmission.blogspot.in/2017/07/india-at-war.html)

For all its mysterious closed door face to the world, China is quite simple and predictable. Look beyond the smoke of diplomacy and war mongering, and it's moves become quite transparent.


TODAY'S CHINA


There are plenty of examples, but let's examine, in India’s context,  China's machinations and “waging of war by other means”


1914
Tripartite Simla Convention - British India, Tibet & China sat down to sign an agreement that brought into force the MacMohan Line and demarcation of border between India and China. Tibet was divided between India and China. China a much weaker and poorer power than Britain… initialed the agreement but did not formally sign. They gave the pretext of differences between definition of Inner and Outer Tibet & bought time.


We see two laws in play -


所有战争都是基于欺骗。-  [All warfare is based on deception]


如果对手进来优越的实力,逃避他。- [If the opponent is of superior strength, evade him]


1951-1954
British power has receded, India is a doddering behemoth that’s ruled by a sermonizing playboy. India’s inept leadership has been demonstrated in Indo-Pak war of 1948, when Nehru, against advice of saner minds, went to the United Nations & internationalized the Kashmir issue.

This therefore was an opportune time for China to make its second move. China had made its first move very subtly.


[They had cultivated Nehru & gotten him to ratify and recognize Mao’s People's Republic of China and adopt a One China Policy]


China moves into Tibet. Takes over all Tibetan claims and what was an open Indo-Tibetan border turned into Sino-Indian border. A 17 point agreement granted China dominion over Tibet and Nehru signed away all Indian claims over Tibet, to China.....without a quid pro quo.

Nehru, with his delusions of grandeur, was easily swayed. All it took was a few open car processions, dinners and some fawning diplomacy and calls of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai


Sun Tzu's law again holds true to the Chinese deception.


讓人們期待他們; 這是他們能夠辨別和證實他們的預測。 它將它們定為可預測的反應模式,在等待非凡時刻時佔據他們的頭腦 - 他們無法預料。

[Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.]







So taken was Nehru, by the Chinese deception that he tried to justify China's attack on India. Indian diplomacy  strategic thinking had been hobbled by the defeat of 1962. The congress governments closed their eyes and pretended that the dragon on our north eastern borders did not exist.


Constant border encroachments and skirmishes have been nearly always been induced by the Chinese PLA. They know that India will not respond beyond weak kneed cajoling and petty whining. it was the army's dedication that inspite of central governments of the day non cooperation, they stood firm and held China back. But with Modi Government at the center things have started looking up. India has started pushing back.


One Bharat Mission
Vineet Saxena
(@vineet_24)






Monday, July 10, 2017

INDIA is at WAR

INDIA IS AT WAR


INDIA’S GRAVEST THREAT IS NOT INSURGENCY!
IN THIS WAR, THE LINE BETWEEN WAR & PEACE IS LESS CLEARLY DEFINED THAN AT ANY POINT IN THE HISTORY OF OUR NATION



INTRODUCTION:

Yes, we are at war and we don't even know it! And it's not Pakistan that's attacking us.

This “new war” is not new. It’s just that it did not dawn upon us as a nation. We saw different parts of a grand design and we called them by different names - Asymmetric War, Terrorism, Naxalism, Secessionism etc. Our approach therefore has been piecemeal. It is only in the last few years that a concerted effort has been made to recognize the dimensions of this multi faceted war.

We know ever since Zulfiqar Bhutto declared a 1000 year war & General Zia‘s desire to bleed India by a 1000 cuts. But it did not dawn on the collective leadership and national consciousness of the extent of this campaign.

The humiliation of 1971 loss and subsequent turmoil in Pakistan, promoted its leaders to unleash a new type of war. This war was, to a large extent, influenced by a theory first pioneered by Polish PM Josef Pilsudski - “Prometheism”. After decades of this new war, Pakistan too was facing the consequences, it was then that a new/old enemy stepped in and took over this war. No one realized it, not India nor Pakistan. This new enemy was growing into an economic powerhouse and had its sights set on regaining its position as a great civilization & power. Only India stood in the way - not knowingly or deliberately, yet geography & history, had put India in it's path towards global domination. This enemy was fed, strengthened and helped along the way by the great, deluded Jawahar Lal Nehru. Either through incompetence or through sheer madness, he saw a friend instead of an foe & handed them the means to irrevocably harm India. We are even today paying the price of his idiocy.

I am sure you would have by now guessed the name of this enemy - CHINA.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:

Now before proceeding further let me put a historical context to this narrative.

Since the dawn of nation states, India has consistently faced threats from across our borders These threats have varied in intensity and goals but we have always managed to turn these threats away. That is until the arrival of Islamic invaders from across the Hindukush & the English from across the sea. Like so many threats we faced, we managed to turn these away too… But at grave human, economic and geographical costs. Yet like the unfathomable timeless sea, we absorbed all who came here, changed them irrevocably and made them ours.

India has and always been a source of great intelligence and wealth. It is this that has attracted the invaders time and again… In the process of attacks and assimilation, India grew into a diverse beautiful nation that's a smaller version of this very earth. However with advent of mid eastern religions with their version of absolutist religiosity that lacked spirituality, India faced a graver threat. These religious zealots sought to destroy India’s soul - a soul that still believes in वसुधैव कुटुम्बकम.

Why???

Because India was a living proof of fallacy of their beliefs. India showed that diversity CAN exist and prosper within a geographic boundary. Religion fueled zeal drove many to their deaths and India was overrun. But 1000 years of constant attacks and rule by despots could not break the spirit of the nation.

India, once again, faces grave threats to its existence as nation state. These threats are often seen as separate entities originating from different sources. Herein lies the biggest error on part of our national consciousness.

We are at war & it's a new type of war - A Hybrid War.

Concept of a hybrid war is not new. Over centuries, it has been practiced in different forms, by some of the greatest military strategists. But these strategies never coalesced into a single Grand Strategy. Years of strategic planning coupled with new technologies and newer players adept at war has eased the coalescing of these disparate strategies into one single grand strategy. This grand strategy is now called Hybrid War.

Before examining its threat, I would, with the reader's indulgence, like to explain the genesis and theories that led to the formulation of the theory of Hybrid War.

The first block of this theory is PROMETHEISM - this strategy was named after the Greek Titan Prometheus. A Polish strategist (and Prime Minister) Josef Pilsudski formulated this theory.

Sandwiched between Russia & Germany, Poland was vulnerable to both these great powers. Pilsudski advocated a subversive strategy to counter these potential threats. Prometheism was directed towards Russia, who at that time occupied significant Polish territories. Edmund Charaszkiewicz chronicled the Promethean Project. It stated that creating unrest in the peripheral territories of an enemy using local population, will ultimately destabilize the power center of the bigger power. In this case the bigger power was Russia and the weaker and smaller power was Poland.

(Do we not see Prometheism in action in Kashmir??)

Pilsudski used immigrants and refugees from Russia & it’s occupied territories to create unrest in Russia occupied border areas of Poland, Crimea etc. Just as Pakistan uses dissatisfied Kashmiri muslims to agitate against their nation.

Theories & strategies of German Chancellor Otto Von Bismarck & Prussian General & Military Theorist Carl Von Clausewitz helped formulate various aspects of the Hybrid War. As brilliant as they were, they too did not see what their strategies will transform into. Clausewitz once famously  said

“Der Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln”
[“War Is a Mere Continuation of Policy with Other Means.”]

Modern day strategists expanded on theories of these geniuses create a new more devastating method of waging war. People like F. William Engdahl wrote in his 2009 book -

“...main priority is to acquire full dominance over the spheres of the conventional military, nuclear weapons, human rights rhetoric and other norms, geopolitics, space, and communications”

It can thus be said that a hybrid war aims at everything and anything that can be weaponized or have some kind of significance on the battlefield or the consciousness of its actors towards achievement of total decimation of the enemy.

Sun Zu (Art of War) has, in his famous work stated -



“至高无上,包括打破敌人的抵抗而不战”

“Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting”

These words are in perfect sync with the concept of hybrid wars. Such wars use various overt and covert means to attack different pillars of an enemy's strength and weaken them. This process utilizes internal dissidents, enemy's news media, social media, NGOs, political opponents, financial markets, social organisations...all aspects that have any bearing on the social, financial, military, political, judicial and theological aspects of a nation



When one sees at the full spectrum of acts underway in our nation, a picture begins to emerge.
It's a worrisome picture of a grand design for destruction of our nation without actually engaging in an overt military action. The symmetry of this both terrifyingly beautiful and amazingly simple as well. Since the mid 60’s India has been increasingly buffeted by class, religious divides, regionalism and language apartheid. Political ineptitude, complicated by a faulty worldview further hobbled India's growth. Nehru's romance with China, Congress's continued love affair with Porkistan have bled India for decades. The biggest display of using incompetent indian netas to push Chinese agenda is the 1950 Sino-Indo-Tibet treaty. Nehru's delusions of being a world leader were, masterfully played by China. Nehru was given the royal treatment,by China. His already inflated ego was further inflated as China sang songs of eternal friendship “Hindi - Chini Bhai Bhai”. All this while China used the Sun Zu principles of art of war, to deceive and attack India. So befooled was the Nehru govt that they did not give army orders to retaliate till it was too late

After India successfully broke Pakistan & created Bangladesh….Paki generals and politicians embarked on a 1000 year war and to bleed India by a thousand cuts.

This strategy was put in place by using local dissidents in Kashmir and Punjab to cause unrest in India's peripheral areas and subsequent unraveling the of the core of India's nationhood. Here again the willing or unwitting complicity or incompetence (the reader is free to choose) of politicians played a significant role. Usurping the Kashmir elections, creation of the frankenstein of Punjab separatism laid open the fertile field for Pakistan to plant the seeds of its “Promethean Agenda” for decades Pakistan used our indigenous dissidents as militants to wage war against the indian state. But this war took a toll on Pakistan..

They ruined their economy, religious fanaticism took roots and Pakistan sped down the slippery road to ruination. It was this moment in history that China stepped in. They bankrolled the generals of Pakistan & took over the Paki agenda. Pakistan eagerly became a Chinese patsy. Where, Pakistan was an open enemy - China was an ambiguous enemy. using its soft power China created a sliver of goodwill in the Indian psyche. Its fast growing economy allowed it to wield all tools of war. Its military strength created just enough doubt & fear in minds of Indian policy makers to overlook & bow down to some of Chinese intransigence. China built on the Promethean agenda and irefined it further through seminal works like Theory of Unrestricted Warfare (1999) published by generals Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. The basic premise is simple and this makes it all the more dangerous.



“无限制战争的第一条规则是没有任何规则,没有禁止的。”
"The first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are NO rules, with nothing forbidden."

Let’s take a look at the pan India scenario -

NAXALISM in central to southern India, Terrorism in Jammu Kashmir & North Eastern States Like Manipur etc - Form the basis militant action against the Indian state. This is aimed at engaging the security apparatus in a quagmire where the army is focused on fighting its own people and security systems are turned inwards, instead of outwards to the enemy.

NGO’S & HUMAN RIGHTS LOBBIES - They are the second arm of Hybrid War. They selectively highlight every encounter between army & naxals/militants as abuse of rights of tribals, poor and backwards etc. NGO’s aid in festering the wounds sustained in fighting militants. They use money to brainwash susceptible and vulnerable populations of the area. This in turn provides a steady stream of recruits to fight against the nation.

THE MEDIA - They form the third arm of Hybrid War Strategy. Many in media can be & are possibly brought through cash or sex or blackmail etc. They use their words to paint every act of the state in negative light, highlight every atrocity at the wrong forums (international etc where nation's image is sullied)

THE ACTIVIST - This group of people are exemplified by what can be described as “Jhola Chappal brigade”. This band comes from well to do, influential families. They are usually well educated and love to pontificate on any and all issues. Sadly this scotch guzzling, sermonizing group never, ever advocates or offers any advise or suggestions. They use their contacts to paint an ugly picture of the nation they belong to. The female version of this group is popularly called the bindi brigade - a big bindi on the forehead, overly made up or the other extreme, totally dressed like a maid.

THE NETA - Usually corrupt and opportunist to the core. They divide the electorate into small captive vote banks that ensures they get elected back to power.

THE DISGRUNTLED CITIZEN - usually deprived of some of the benefit, poorly educated and more often than not - betrayed by the government and their elected netas.

THE JIHADI - religiously indoctrinated to kill all non believers. They are most dispensable of the above groups. They are easily brainwashed and radicalised, poor and disenfranchised. This group along with the naxal, form the cannon fodder of the Hybrid War.

THE CRONY CAPITALIST - He is the moneybags of the operation. Living and growing like a fungus on the fecal matter of a rotting socio economic system, he grows rich at the expense of his nation. He is the financer and the subversor of the national fabric.

All the above groups are either financed or supported by this group.

Now as aware citizens we all, can very well, put faces to the above examples.

These wings or arms are wielded by the enemy, in this case China, to successfully weaken the foundation of our nation. As Sun Zu said….. Win without fighting, destroy enemy state's foundations and weaken it so that it loses it’s will to fight….. All of this was seen very clearly till now.

With advent of a strong leader like Modi, India has started fighting back. The Naxal menace is being tackled, the NGO nexus is being monitored and the media, activists nexus is being exposed.

CONCLUSION -

As India started its climb back to its rightful place as Vishwa Guru, the intensity of the Hybrid War has been ratcheted up. The Award Wapsi, Intolerance brigade and the nursery of this group that celebrated murder of our soldiers are being increasingly exposed and countered both on the street and on the intellectual levels. Modi government is at the moment engaged in the “Bismarkesque” model, striking alliances, signing treaties & agreements. The intelligence wings are working to bridge operational gaps that congress governments had allowed to creep in

But this is not enough… We need to do more!!!

RECOMMENDATION -

It may not be my place to recommend any action but as a citizen of this great nation, I can certainly suggest -

We as a nation need to recognize the grand design that's being implemented against India - This Hybrid War.

We as citizens, need to break the stranglehold of Armchair Intellectuals, Saleable Media, Activists and NGO’s over our national psyche. We need to start thinking for ourselves and not rely on this unholy nexus to tell us what to think.

The government needs to revamp the security doctrine of our nation. Though we have been quite successful in countering terrorism & militancy but our security protocols still rely on decades old theories. These have helped us till now but it has also failed to address the need for a countering grand design to the enemy’s grand plan - a hybrid war.

Jai Hind
Writer


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