DEMYSTIFYING THE CHINESE DRAGON

ANSWERS LIE IN CHINA'S HISTORY

• TAKE FIVE PIECES OF LAND

• GIVE BACK TWO

• SWEAR PEACE

• GAIN OF THREE PIECES OF LAND

• GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF LAND TILL YOU OWN ALL THE LANDS

ZHANG YI - PREMIER OF QIN EMPEROR QIN SHI HUANG [秦始皇]

Combine these words with the words of SUN TZU [孫子],

• WAR IS A FUNCTION OF THE STATE, IT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VICTORY & RUINATION. HENCE IT IS A SUBJECT OF INQUIRY WHICH CAN ON NO ACCOUNT BE NEGLECTED.

• ALL WARFARE IS BASED ON DECEPTION.

 and you will start getting an inkling of the idea that guides Chinese foreign policy.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Most of Chinese history is filled with war and strife : The period of Spring & Autumn 春秋 (771 BCE - 476 BCE) and the Warring States Period 戰國時代 (475 BCE - 221 BCE) are particularly notable. Most occasions Chinese War Stratagems & Philosophies were formed during this period. This period is also marked by refinements in use of DECEPTION as a tool of diplomacy.

The Warring States Period ended with the establishment of the Qin (Chin) Empire of Qin Shi Huang. Qin Shi defeated all the six states and annexed them into what we now know as China.

Some of the greatest works to come out of China are all about war - preparing for it, waging it and negotiating the end of it. “Master of the Sun” Sun Tzu and his masterpiece ART OF WAR is possibly the most widely read military strategy work. In his work Sun Tzu makes war the central purpose for existence of a state. He declares that when the state is not waging war, it must prepare for war. Because war is inevitable…. It will come.

(I particularly like these words, for they hold in them, a very Confucian idea that's simple yet holds deep meaning)

Now much like India, China too was let down by its leaders and people. The Mongol, Japanese, British… All ruled China during different periods of its existence…. And it was all because the Chinese refused to stand united. When Genghis (चंगेज) Khan (pronounced as Han) attacked China, he had to first face the kingdom of Xia Xia, the ruler of Xia Xia asked the Chinese emperor for help…. He was turned down. Mongols overran Xia Xia in a matter of days and then moved on to lay siege on the Chinese Emperor.

These foreign rules and the resulting humiliations has forced today's China to revert back to its roots, to find its lost pride and its national “Chi” 吃. This national renaissance started with Mao's Long March. The Long March was militarily a retreat but it triggered an awakening of the people. Like so many events in China's history, this retreat was a blood soaked event...Only 1 out of 10 survived the march.

The return to its cultural and historical past was sadly to a past of incessant wars, land grab and deception. It is this past that forms the basis of today's China and its world view.

CHINA's MANDATE OF HEAVEN (天命)

According to this MANDATE of HEAVEN (pronounced as Tian) bestows upon the “Son of Heaven” to rule as a just ruler. This mandate embodies the natural order of things and will of the universe.

The kingdom of heaven (China) is supposed to reflect the natural order of things where the Son of Heaven enjoy primacy over all others since he holds the MANDATE of HEAVEN to rule this world. In order to enforce this mandate, it falls on the ruler to use every stratagem at his disposal. To do this China falls back on its centuries of war waging expertise, works of its master strategists like Lao Zhu, Sun Tzu Zhang Yi etc. To the Chinese mind waging war through armed conflict is not the Chinese way. They use diplomacy to wage war, their economy as a weapon and money as leverage.

Over decades China has melded its historical war mongering stratagems with modern day going political realities. Today they are truly one of the most accomplished practitioners of HYBRID WARS 

(read my blog on Hybrid Wars here https://onebharatmission.blogspot.in/2017/07/india-at-war.html)

For all its mysterious closed door face to the world, China is quite simple and predictable. Look beyond the smoke of diplomacy and war mongering, and it's moves become quite transparent.

TODAY'S CHINA

There are plenty of examples, but let's examine, in India’s context,  China's machinations and “waging of war by other means”

1914

Tripartite Simla Convention - British India, Tibet & China sat down to sign an agreement that brought into force the MacMohan Line and demarcation of border between India and China. Tibet was divided between India and China. China a much weaker and poorer power than Britain… initialed the agreement but did not formally sign. They gave the pretext of differences between definition of Inner and Outer Tibet & bought time.

We see two laws in play -

所有战争都是基于欺骗。-  [All warfare is based on deception]

如果对手进来优越的实力，逃避他。- [If the opponent is of superior strength, evade him]

1951-1954

British power has receded, India is a doddering behemoth that’s ruled by a sermonizing playboy. India’s inept leadership has been demonstrated in Indo-Pak war of 1948, when Nehru, against advice of saner minds, went to the United Nations & internationalized the Kashmir issue.

This therefore was an opportune time for China to make its second move. China had made its first move very subtly.

[They had cultivated Nehru & gotten him to ratify and recognize Mao’s People's Republic of China and adopt a One China Policy]

China moves into Tibet. Takes over all Tibetan claims and what was an open Indo-Tibetan border turned into Sino-Indian border. A 17 point agreement granted China dominion over Tibet and Nehru signed away all Indian claims over Tibet, to China.....without a quid pro quo.

Nehru, with his delusions of grandeur, was easily swayed. All it took was a few open car processions, dinners and some fawning diplomacy and calls of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai

Sun Tzu's law again holds true to the Chinese deception.

讓人們期待他們; 這是他們能夠辨別和證實他們的預測。 它將它們定為可預測的反應模式，在等待非凡時刻時佔據他們的頭腦 - 他們無法預料。

[Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.]

So taken was Nehru, by the Chinese deception that he tried to justify China's attack on India. Indian diplomacy  strategic thinking had been hobbled by the defeat of 1962. The congress governments closed their eyes and pretended that the dragon on our north eastern borders did not exist.

Constant border encroachments and skirmishes have been nearly always been induced by the Chinese PLA. They know that India will not respond beyond weak kneed cajoling and petty whining. it was the army's dedication that inspite of central governments of the day non cooperation, they stood firm and held China back. But with Modi Government at the center things have started looking up. India has started pushing back.

One Bharat Mission

Vineet Saxena

(@vineet_24)

CHINA THE 21ST CENTURY HEGEMON

CHINA

THE 21^ST CENTURY HEGEMON

Each century has its heroes and villains. The 21^st Century

has seen the rise of its first Villain -

A Hegemonic behemoth of a nation - CHINA.

Backed by overflowing coffers due to 5 decades of economic growth, China has developed economic & muscular heft. It uses both these to pursue its hegemonic ambitions.

 

China shares a land border with 13 nations & the 14th is China's client state Pakistan, through the Pak Occupied Kashmir. Still China has border disputed with 23 nations. China used its muscular heft to good effect and forced these nations to fall in line. China used specious arguments of historical (more mythical, than factual) ownership, to lay claim on territories of its neighbours. Those who resisted were forced to submit. Use of economics and military as weapons of intimidation got the Chinese what they coveted - LAND.

The smaller nations capitulated meekly and those who dared to stand up to China faced economic bullying and military pressure. They saw their trade dry up, political unrest inside their borders, constant small scale border disputes where their small armies were pitted against the Red Army. China has used wealth generated by capitalism & the use of brute force of communism to fashion a foreign policy that's aimed at one goal - creation of a superpower. Now ambitions of being a super power are good and might even be appreciable, but growing at the cost of others, preying on those weaker nations, does China, no credit.

Today China has only two friends - North Korea & Pakistan. These two are rogue nations that grace the bottom of every developmental, human resource parameter. These nuclear armed nations depend on China for their daily survival. North Korea & Pakistan are one of the biggest sources of unrest and possible nuclear flashpoints. China's choice of friends say a lot about its character as a nation. China's growth could have been benign and a stabilizing force in a tumultuous world. But China chose to go the other way, it chose unrest and attrition as its default setting.

But before we decide to condemn Chinese policy of "Land Grab", I would like to put forth a different perspective as to why China chose an adversarial model of foreign policy.

The answer may well lie in China's recent history. The dawn of the 20^th century saw rise of Communism and Mao Zedong. He led the Chinese Communist Party to a bloody war to overthrow the ruling Chiang Kai-shek led KMT or the Nationalist Kuomintang Party. This was a long and bloody war that saw rise of Mao as the undisputed leader of the communist party and the decimation & exile of Chiang Kai-shek with his KMT to Taiwan. During this decade long war China had no time to settle border disputes. After establishment of Mao as Chairman, the prevalent theory in the CCP was - Since Marxism did not recognize nation states therefore any border dispute was immaterial. If the neighbouring state was communist so ceding any territory to the neighbour was not an issue since the nation state will eventually dissolve and make national boundaries irrelevant. However if the state was not communist (red) then any ceding of territory by China will be seen as weakness. CCP's one-dimensional view was further corrupted by the total lack of any concept of modern nation states & their territorial importance. What they had was a confusing mix of utopian Marxism inspired ideas & sporadic sense of reluctance of display of any weakness to the enemy.

穷则搁置争议，共同开发；达则自古以来，神圣不可侵犯

When Poor We shall Put Aside the Dispute and Cooperate in Development; When Rich We Shall Insist the Territories Belong to China Since the Ancient Time , Then They Are Sacred and Inviolable 

This has become the main principle guiding China in resolution of territorial disputes between China & its neighbours. After Mao's death Deng Xiaoping became Chairman. He quickly realized the inherent weaknesses riddling the Chinese nation. He added two new dimensions to China's policy -

1.    韬光养晦 or Hide One's Capabilities and Bide One' s Time

2.    搁置争议，共同开发 or (in respect of disputed territory) the principle of Putting Aside the Dispute and Cooperating in Development

Over the last 3 decades, this approach helped China grow strong (economically & militarily). Now when its strong, China is simply doing what it had wanted to do. Gobble up territory under imaginary & often mythical assumptions. Like China's claim over Vietnam or South Korea, (which were once many hundreds of years back under Chinese rule). China's claim over major part of the South China Sea is partly based on the fact that its named South CHINA Sea. It would be funny, were it not so dangerous.

Now that we begin to understand why China is getting into disputes with its neighbours we can look at some of the disputes that China has with 23 nations -

Listed below are just some of the disputes that China has created with its neighbours -

Keeping in mind the Chinese principle -

"穷则搁置争议，共同开发；达则自古以来，神圣不可侵犯"

One can begin to understand the Chinese mind and use it to our advantage in resolution of border disputes with the People's Republic of China. Any show of attempted reconciliation towards China will be construed as weakness. Conversely a show of strength will bring into play Deng Xiaoping's second principle and push China towards the negotiating table.

Nudging China towards a responsible role as global power, is India's responsibility.This in my humble opinion, is the only way, India can deal with China and come away a winner from the negotiating table.

Vineet Saxena

(@vineet_24)