One Bharat Mission: August 2017

Congress ‘Fiasco’ destroyed the Indian Agriculture Economy;

PM MODIfies& Rejuvenates the Lost Glory

Happy Farmer and his family

In what could have been the most unprecedented move of Nehru, the first PM of Independent India in 1947, the entire development narrative for the country was a farce. He was, no doubt a strategist, but what he did was not for the nation but for the family, today referred as dynasty. I recall viewing a very old video of a Press Conference Nehru addressed, he categorically referred his view about the Army postings in Kashmir as an aggressive act on the people of Jammu & Kashmir. Does it not reflect the betrayal mindset, and an ideology tilted towards escapism?

Nehru was an utter failure in economic policy framework, foreign policies, bilateral relationships, Indian internal political conduct, national leadership and above all failure in laying long-term developmental policies including vastly resourceful Agriculture Industry. His quest was not to carry national focus, but commitment for personal friends like Abdullah and Mountbatten, and obviously his profound reverence for Gandhi. Nehru’s failures and subsequent failures of Congress and its allies have resulted today grown into devilish proportions of national fiasco. I feel we as Indians, are enough fortunate to have a leader who has put all that he has in transforming India in the last three years, taking inflictions all around his body, mind and soul. The wrong doings of seventy years of independence cannot be unwounded in a flip of second, requires dedicated and concentrated efforts, sacrifice and wise mindset to recreate lost opportunities, development and time. In fact it was Nehru’s coup that brought further upheaval to a country already struggling with the soars and agonies of divided India.

Though the Nehru-Mahalanobis strategies did underline the agriculture focus or the ‘Green Revolution’, but emphasis was more towards manufacturing machines, perhaps the western cultured background of Nehru to be blamed. The focus on agriculture industrial revolution declined sufficiently in the post 1962 war-ridden India. Even the ‘Grow More Food’ revolution could not sustain, eventually terminating the aggressive agricultural research. In fact it never could maintain or reclaim the momentum the Agriculture Industry required.

“One of the most critical and vital Nehru-proposed, Government directive that came in the form of ‘Land Reforms’, imposed the limitations to land ownership, and also excessive powers to the state to acquire agricultural lands from the farmers. This severance of the agricultural land led to the extreme failure of Agriculture Industry”.

Nehru, the Professor Confucius he was, laid a liquid foundation of ‘Unknown’ fallacy and destroyed an industry that could have been the source of all Economic, Social and Political supremacy today. The Nehru legacy, with loads of fractured policies was, followed by Indira, Rajiv and Sonia along with UPA regime. Blaming Ex PM Man Mohan Singh will be not apt in any case and situation. As a matter of fact, Nehru tried to make things but his incapability got caught between his modern approach to link development and the ground level reality. And more severely, his growth assumptions were shadowed and blundered by the repressive policies of Indira Gandhi.

One needs to imagine, the vast resources India had and the production capabilities, and top of it the high level of production of major crops like wheat, rice and other agricultural products, still had a huge burden of grain imports and dying farmers. It was none other than the inefficient and irrelevant government policies and poor infrastructure of irrigation that crippled the agriculture sector.

Source: Internet

While looking at the above figure will, it will illustrate that the Indian Agriculture Industry suffered due to some natural imposed distress and more of the Government incapability of not being able to handle and address the issues, leading to caucus and shattered hopes of Farmers.

There was nothing that can be attributed to infrastructure transformation to sync with the demanding future of India.Keeping aside the price policy, that played a great distress in the sector, were the poor holdings of majority of the people living in rural areas. Lack of resources resulted in almost negligible productivity, pushing the farmers to the edge, even missing meals sometimes. Apart from 5% farmers holding around 30% of cultivable land, the marginalized farmers also suffered in the hands of draught, famines, soil erosions, lack of storage facility, poor distribution system or no system and most importantly the availability of operating finance. One common feature thatwas found missing in the policies was the intent of Farmer’s welfare. If farmer’s fortunes were lost due to UPA’s fractured Agricultural Policies, the natural disasters were far more deadly.

More than 65% of farmland in India consists of marginal and small farms less than one hectare in size. Moreover, because of population growth, farm size has been decreasing. The average size of operational holdings has almost halved since 1970 to one hectare. Approximately 92 million households or 490 million people are dependent on marginal or small farm holdings as per the 2001 Census.

This translates into 60% of the rural population or 42% of the total population. About 70% of India lives in rural areas and all-weather roads do not connect about 40% of rural habitations. Lack of proper transport facility and inadequate post-harvesting methods, food processing and transportation of foodstuff has meant an annual wastage of Rs 50,000 crores.

There is a pronounced bias in the government’s procurement policy, with Punjab, Haryana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and western UP accounting for the bulk (83.5%) of it. The food subsidy bill has increased from Rs 24,500 crores in 1990-1991 to Rs 1.7 lakh crores in 2001-2002 to Rs 2.3 lakh crores in 2016. Instead of being a last-resort buyer, the Food Corporation of India has become the preferred buyer for farmers. Such government policy has resulted in mountains of food grains coinciding with starvation deaths, with a few regions of concentrated rural prosperity.

(Source: Agrarian Distress-Mohan Guruswamy)

The Indian subcontinent is home to nearly half of the world’s hungry people.

(Credit: Manan Vatsyayana / AFP)

The subsidies aimed to help poor farmers has not been as effective as they should have been, the factor being, marginalized farmers are further marginalized with major benefits extracted by rich farmers, thanks to the ‘Richie Rich’ considerate, Indira and Rajiv Gandhi’s rule for decades.

The subsidies have paralyzed the work force of India, both in rural and urban sectors. Instead of enabling the youth towards realistic and concrete efforts, their intentions stand disabled. I remember ‘JawaharRozgarYojna’, ‘Indira RozgarYojna’ and many such banking & financial offers for small business start-ups, carried from 15 to 30% subsidies.

Moreover, these subsidies were indirect promotion offers for the vote banks of Congress and its allies. In reality these subsidies never entered the nucleus of benefits, but remained in the configuration belonging to influential and rich. What we can call, the dynasty’s truly Richie Rich syndrome.

Be it free water, power, fertilizer, pesticides, training all stood depleted at an enormous cost. The ill-timed and ill-managed policies of Congress saw the state funding and budget allocation in Agriculture having a free fall of almost 22,000crores from 6^th Five-year plan to 9^th Five-year plan.

The Congress Policy FIASCO resulted in the huge loss of GDP contribution by Agriculture Industry Produce on a regular basis, from around 56% to mere 14% till 2013-14. The decline exhibits the seriousness of the then Congress ruled Government towards Agriculture Industry and the most important stakeholder, the Farmers.

However, soon after ModiJi took over as Prime Minister, the GDP contribution has increased to around 18% and shall grow, as the policies are now being consolidated.

The following table shows the decreasing share of agriculture in the GDP:

Year	Share of Agriculture (GDP %)
1950-51	56.5
1970-71	45.9
1990-91	34.0
2000-2001	24.7
2006-07	19.55
2007-08	18.51
2008-09	16.4
2009-10	15.7
Source : CSO and Economic Survey 2009-10

It’s a paradox that in our country, such a large work force of 58.2% contributes to only 15.7% of the GDP and this is the reason that a farmer of India is poor and backward. If we compare the data with USA or Canada we find that As of 2008, approximately 2-3 percent of the population is directly employed in agriculture in United States and the contribution in GDP is also around 2-3%. So, in India there is a large disparity between the per capita income in the farm sector and the non-farm sector.

Further, GDP per agricultural worker is currently around Rs 2000 per month, which is only about 75% higher in real terms than in 1950 compared to a four-fold increase in overall real per capita GDP.The decline in growth of agricultural GDP was primarily due to the fall in the production of agricultural crops such as oilseeds, cotton, jute and mesta, and sugarcane. In 2009-10, despite experiencing the worst south-west monsoon since 1972 and subsequent significant fall in kharif food grain production, the growth marginally recovered to 0.4 per cent primarily due to a good rabi crop.

Source &Tags:Indian Agriculture | Primary Sector Indian Economy

Agriculture GDP Projections

*All figures in crore of Rupees, at constant 2004-05 Series*
Year	GDP Agri.	GDP Agri.	Difference	GDP	Difference as %
Year	(assume 4%)	(assume 2%)	Difference	(assume 6%)	of GDP
2012-13 (CSO figure)	649,424	649,424	-	5,482,111	-
2012-13	675,401	662,412	12,988	5,811,038	0.22
2013-14	702,417	675,661	26,756	6,159,700	0.43
2014-15	730,514	689,174	41,340	6,529,282	0.63
2015-16	759,734	702,957	56,777	6,921,039	0.82
2016-17	790,124	717,017	73,107	7,336,301	1.00
2017-18	821,729	731,357	90,372	7,776,479	1.16
2018-19	854,598	745,984	108,614	8,243,068	1.32
2019-20	888,782	760,904	127,878	8,737,652	1.46
2020-21	924,333	776,122	148,211	9,261,911	1.60
2021-22	961,306	791,644	169,662	9,817,626	1.73
2022-23	999,758	807,477	192,281	10,406,683	1.85
2023-24	1,039,749	823,627	216,122	11,031,084	1.96
2024-25	1,081,339	840,099	241,240	11,692,949	2.06
2025-26	1,124,592	856,901	267,691	12,394,526	2.16
2026-27	1,169,576	874,039	295,537	13,138,198	2.25
2027-28	1,216,359	891,520	324,839	13,926,490	2.33
2028-29	1,265,013	909,350	355,663	14,762,079	2.41
2029-30	1,315,614	927,537	388,076	15,647,804	2.48
*The 2012-13 RE figures are based on the Quick Estimates of the CSO. Agriculture excludes fishery & forestry.*
*If agricultural GDP were to grow at 4% till 2029-30, it would mean 41.83% more income than if it were to grow at 2%.*
*At present (2012-13), 41.84% more income from agriculture translates into Rs.278,113crore, which is 5.073% of the GDP.*

Source: Data book of Planning Commission, Govt of India

If we look at the projection table above, we will observe that by the year 2024, GDP contribution of Agriculture Industry will increase from INR 6,159,700 crores to INR 11,692,949, with almost 100%increase of INR 5,533,249 crores. This is the First positive sign of the Change of Guard of the country, the new Leadership of India, Prime Minister ShriNarendra D Modi.

Making India come out of the fiasco and muddle created by Congress (UPA) is now the major challenge and the entire Government along with Chief Ministers of BJP ruled states, under the leadership of Hon’bleShriRadha Mohan Singh, Union Cabinet Minister for Agriculture, has started serious working towards regaining the confidence of Farmers, stakeholders of the Agriculture Industry, its allied industries and removing complexities in executing the benefits from NABARD to farmers. A revolution has already begun.

All reforms in the pipeline shall focus on Farmerand its Family Welfare, Price Control Mechanism, Simplified Export & Import Procedures, Storing &Distribution Policies, Availability of Seeds, Fertilizers and Pesticides, Packing & Packaging, Soil Research, Crop Insurance against excessive rains, flood & famines, Farm Equipment Loans, Balanced Land Holdings, Time-bound Subsidies, Proper infrastructure for irrigation facilities and all that can be possible and are within reach and the purview of monitoring agencies.

Taming the Congress Beast; Agriculture Policy Fiasco

BJP and its NDA partners, all have a serious concern for the growth of Indian Agriculture Industry, even while in opposition had continuously raised their voices both in LokSabha and RajyaSabha, and at State levels, the lost directions of the industry and how disastrous it could be in long terms. Certain uncontrollable were beyond human maneuvers, but issues that had a clear resolves, were not touched upon. It was nothing else but lack of vision and intent on part of the Congress leadership and responsibility towards the farmers and the nation.

Reforms were introduced, soon after Hon’ble Prime Minister MrModi took over in 2014, and announced policies that would benefit the farmers and the industry. The cabinet announced measures that would contain the price rise, distribution issues, mobility of agricultural and allied products from fields to destination. Special directives were issued to control the declining profitability of ailing sugar industry. The immediate concern was to boost the industry with giant efforts bringing apparent changes at the earliest.

Addressing one major difficultythat being the mobilization and availability of end agricultural products to customers, got an important approval by the Government, proposing International Agriculture Corridor in various agricultural dominated states and increased rural roads.

In June 2015, a report was published in Economic Times, elaborating the following approvals:

1. The Government shall import lentils in large quantities that would ease the supplies.

2. Stern action against the hoarders.

3. Ensure smooth supply of Urea and other fertilizers in all parts of the country. The entire gap between production and demand of fertilizers to be thoroughly worked out.

4. To take Special measures so that the industry is able to meet out the dues of Sugarcane arrears. The cabinet also approved soft loans worth INR 6000 crores for the sugar industry. Strict instructions were issued o the banks ensuring that the farmers are timely paid their dues directly to the accounts of the farmers, of which the list to be obtained from the Sugar Mills. Once all dues paid, the remaining fund to be transferred to the respective sugar mills.

Source: Internet

Changes & Reforms toTransform the Ailing Agriculture Industry:

The recent announcement and the budgetary allocation by Finance Minister, MrArunJaitley has paved way for to ring about Total Transformation of the Agriculture Industry and a move to remove the tag “Ailing” from the Industry. Some of the key features are given below:

According to Finance Minister, MrArunJaitley, funding for the rural and agriculture sector would be increased by 24% in fiscal 2017-18 to INR 1.87 trillion, which is the largest allocation so far. The budget is good enough to boost the reforms in the industry with emphasis on increased funding for farm credit and crop insurance. NABARD is instructed to play a key role in making provisions for better access to and improved irrigation infrastructure apart from encouraging the dairy sector. Creation of electronic National Agriculture Market (e-NAM),delists perishable products from Agriculture Produce Marketing Committee (APMC), enabling farmers to sell directly in the markets with better price offers.The budget also seeks for a special funding of approximately INR 1900 crores to Cooperative Banks for a direct role in Core Banking.

A micro-irrigation fund with a corpus of INR 5000 crores and a Dairy Development fund with a corpus of INR 8000 crores would also be set up through NABARD, as its monitoring agency. The distress, mainly declining farmer’s income, due to lower crop prices, deficient rainfall, weather based disasters shall all be addressed timely and cater to improve sufficiently, the income of farmers.

Source:TOI (Internet)

In the past three years of BJP Government and the dynamic leadership of Shri Narendra Modi, Constructive motivation by Shri Amit Shah, Strategic & Financial resolves by Shri Arun Jaitley, Hard Core & Ground Experience of Shri Radha Mohan Singh has truly transformed the ailing Agriculture Industry and put into an orbit of continuous development and consolidation. Still the goals are many and distance to cover is large but the newly elected adjudicators, both in LokSabha, RajyaSabha and Head of BJP ruled States will surely establish the turn around for the welfare of farmers and their families and an increased contribution to GDP.

The following Exhibits illustrates the intention of the Centre to bring about Total Transformation in the Indian Agriculture Industry& Farmer’s Happiness:

(Source & Info-graphics; NaMo App and Internet)